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Choice of policy of our country neuter finance is analytic
 
Summary: Can last of economy from one country in light of development, of active finance policy carrying out can be level sex, provisionality only, as one country the development of economic situation changes should timely and measurable make adjust accordingly, ability is more scientific ground adjusting control is macroscopical economic layout and structure, make its run orbit advancement along healthy, steady progress. Those who accompanying policy of our country active finance is successive execute, economic growth quickens effect to highlight, national economy territory came into being the problem of a lot of structure sexes and contradiction, this forces the choice of policy of our country finance to be necessary to be transferred to neuter by outspread sex. Hold active finance policy to transfer stage by stage to neutral finance policy " duration " , be about to get used to the constant change of economic situation adequately, aspirant travel is combined in method of means of adjusting control target, adjusting control, adjusting control and method timely adjust, use the method of scientific finance of macroscopical adjusting control that fits our country national condition more. Keyword: Policy of outspread sex finance; Neuter finance policy; National debt burden is led; Squeeze an effect   tradition macroeconomics theory is general assign finance policy general interest for policy of outspread sex finance (vigorous finance policy) , neuter finance policy (firm finance policy) with policy of constrictive sex finance 3 kinds, among them neuter finance policy and additional both distinction basically is behaved go up in the effect way to national economy. Policy of outspread sex finance and policy of constrictive sex finance are a kind " go against wind direction " oppose periodic operation, those who forestall social total demand is big fall greatly cause macroscopical economy acuteness wave motion, and a variety of negative effects that cause from this; Neuter finance policy is not to oppose periodic operation, is the operation of a kind of oriented sex only, its original meaning is finance income and expenses poise, incorrect society total demand produces dilate or constrictive effect. Our country begins to execute since August 1998 the policy of outspread sex finance that is main measure in order to increase hair national debt, namely vigorous finance policy, of this one policy carry out, make our country overshot successfully Asian banking crisis, drive our country economy to walk out of trough, began new round high speed grows. Active finance policy included to expand commonly government spending and reduce tax the content of two respects, since 1998, the significant demand that is based on our country is not worth and of the choice is the policy that gives priority to with enlarging government spending, basically reflect the year after year that invests in national debt to expand, according to statistic, 1998-2004 year, our country accumulative total issued 910 billion yuan long-term construction national debt, borrow money plus the form a complete set of the bank, 67 years national debt plays this part move formation investment dimensions to be left and right sides of 5 trillion yuan of RMBs about, pull every year move GDP to increase two percent. The active finance policy of other still includes: Increase hair national debt to state-owned commercial bank, special use at infrastructure construction; Adjust taxation policy, the export that increases partial product group by group withdraws tax rate, carry out taxation derate to concerning a project; Advance " cost changes tax " reform, reduce enterprise and farmer burden; The salary of the member that increase official business, social security pay that raises an off-duty workers, from the point of the angle of macroscopical adjusting control, of active finance policy carry out enlarge home market for our country really, improve infrastructure and economic structure, the stable and harmonious development of stimulative countryman economy produced tremendous effect. But we also should regain consciousness realise, can last of economy from one country in light of development, of policy of this kind of active finance carrying out can be level sex, provisionality only, execute for a long time impossibly go down, as one country the development of economic situation changes should timely and measurable make adjust accordingly, ability is more scientific ground adjusting control is macroscopical economic layout and structure, make its run orbit advancement along healthy, steady progress. Those who accompanying policy of our country active finance is successive execute, enter after 2003, economic growth quickens effect to highlight, national economy territory came into being the problem of a lot of structure sexes and contradiction, a few risks and restricted element also all the more is outstanding, main show is in: 1, respect of governmental financial resources. Our country implements active finance policy is to be in demand is insufficient, deflationary be forced to adopt below the circumstance that is out of order with monetary policy, this does not mean a government to have the capacity of policy of finance of sex of long-term large-scale executive dilate. The proportion that income of our country finance held GDP 1997 is only 11.6% , this one scale had the last few years very big rise, to 2003 finance income occupied the proportion of GDP to exceed 20% , the financial capacity that can watch adjusting control with Yu Hong is very finite. Implement active finance policy a few this years, enlarge governmental investment, basically be support enlarges finance deficit, issue national debt to undertake, but execute the finance income increment that has given future for a long time to bury played hidden trouble. 2, finance venture respect. These year implementing active finance policy is correct, but also have negative effect, it increased finance risk, outstanding expression was increasing deficit risk and national debt risk. Since implementing active finance policy, deficit of our country finance and national debt are issued the forehead and accumulate remaining sum mushroom, deficit is led (the rate that deficit holds GDP) lead with national debt burden (the rate that national debt remaining sum holds GDP) have rise substantially. 1998, 2002, the deficit of our country is led from 1.2% rise to 3.0% , national debt burden is led from 10% rise to 18.1% , deficit rate begins to be close to international cordon 3% . Some national debt capital be waited for by divert even, these metropolises affect the investment beneficial result of national debt, increase national debt risk. 3, " squeeze an effect " problem. Alleged " squeeze an effect " it is to because the government enlarges deficit,point to, increase hair national debt and cause what supply to civilian branch capital to decrease, reduce the phenomenon that folk invests thereby. At present economics bound has two kinds of point of views, an angle thinks, the active finance policy that our country implements currently won't arise " squeeze an effect " . Prime cause: It is " squeeze an effect " the dilate that one of conditions are government spending causes interest rate to rise, restrain civilian investment thereby, and at present the national debt of our country issues what did not cause interest rate to rise; 2 it is at present the bank branch of our country is existing to put difference in great quantities, the competition of nonexistent government and civilian branch on credit capital requirement problem; The 3 financing channel that are civilian investment not stricture of channel of free, investment, restrict an element more; 4 it is the doorsill that enter town tall, the capital gain that invests a project leads general on the low side to wait. After these elements are eliminated, execute policy of outspread sex finance for a long time to be caused possibly " squeeze an effect " . And in light of another angle, since implementing active finance policy, revenue income appeared to exceed constant growth, without giving thought to reason how, from finance income and expenses on the whole, mean a government to control use resource to increase, accordingly, civilian branch controls use resource to decrease, investment ability is abate, this is belonged to apparently " squeeze an effect " category. 4, the problem that avoids revert of system of former planned economy. On the use of monetary policy and finance policy, think commonly, monetary policy lay particular stress on adjusts at the market, finance policy, especially lay particular stress on of policy of national debt investment adjusts at governmental plan. Now, our country is lying by planned economy system in the process to shunt of market economic system, planned economy system still has quite big effect. Below this kind of setting, if implement active finance policy for a long time, control of dimensions of national debt investment is insufficient, with respect to the action of system of possible aggrandizement planned economy, bring about the revert of original system, affect the establish of market economic system, since cloggy our country enters a life, what affirm to position of economy of our city field is seek to appeal to in international society beg. At present the economy of our country moves to remain dominant of a kind of government greatly model economy runs state, the government undertakes the whole thing overmuch problem still is, and the plan that investment of national debt capital is concentration of a kind of height invests system, investment project by inferior and place, layer upon layer declare, in the center of, ranking and layer upon layer examine and approve, still ask loan of bank form a complete set, place plans fund of form a complete set at the same time, its affect dimensions to want to invest dimensions at national debt severalfold. System of this kind of planned economy makes photograph tie with the appointment of governmental official, very easy generation contends for investment, work energetically go up quickly, do greatly " figure project " and " project of achievement in one's post " malpractice, the issue that the project invests heavy amount and speed, light quality and benefit is mixed apparently quite outstanding. The overheat of structural sex economy that these problems and contradiction bring about, the mainest expressional sex way is investment expands, use of oily, report, coal is comprehensive and nervous, price of fundamental raw material rises considerably, cause inflation thereby. The Central Bank releases PPI data showed this year in April: Coal price rises compared to the same period 33% ; Case of finished product oil price rises compared to the same period 3.5% ; Rolled steel price rises compared to the same period 33.4% ; Cupreous price rises compared to the same period 49.5% ; The whole nation has 24 provinces city to be forced to pull brake to be restricted first quarter report. Accordingly, when the condition is mature, with national debt investment is active finance policy of the feature this kind to answer timely exit, and the acting finance policy with dovish neutral. In May 2002, when golden person celebrates minister of Ministry of finance to attend the whole world to support news conference of deficient congress closure in Shanghai, say: Below current economy condition, china not only the issue that is put in parcel region industry to had invested overheat of big, economy, also existing the phenomenon of the undercapitalize such as line of business of service of industry of traffic of agriculture, the sources of energy, high-tech, consumption. This need is adopted have retain the finance policy that control, do not do one knife to cut. The finance policy of our country wants to transfer to more neutral finance policy from vigorous finance policy. On November 6, 2004, lou Jiwei of undersecretary of Ministry of finance is in Chinese industry grew a seminar to go up to express publicly 2005, will execute next year " dovish " finance policy, serving namely while Yu Hong watchs adjusting control policy, reduce deficit and public investment appropriately, add actively close cut down expense, adjust defray structure, push finance reform. How had held active finance policy the transition to relatively firm neuter finance policy " duration " , my individual thinks to ought to get used to the constant change of economic situation adequately, aspirant travel is combined in method of means of adjusting control target, adjusting control, adjusting control and method timely adjust, discuss the step of scientific finance of macroscopical adjusting control that fits our country national condition more. 1, adjust finance policy target: The target that grows by exciting economy turns for increase obtain employment and solve " 3 farming " the problem serves as main goal. The target of active finance policy since 1998, it is exciting economy growth all the time. The growth of our country GDP, by can calculate than caliber, 1998, 2000, average 7.7% , achieved 2002 8% , 2003 more achieve 9.9% . According to the analysis in front, our country's current requirement is not worth a problem, it is undercapitalize and the problem that speak inadequacy no longer, they had appeared to grow more quickly, ministry of even occurrence end is superfluous problem. Current demand inadequacy basically is to consume demand to still show inadequacy. And 3 aforementioned consumption demand is insufficient main reasons, second crucial point is in its depth to be mixed at obtain employment problem " 3 farming " problem. Increase obtain employment number to be able to raise dweller income level, also be the main factor that maintains economic stability growth at the same time; Increase obtain employment, be helpful for increasing the income of group of town low income and the proportion that estate crowd produces in expanding, be helpful for gap of contractible dweller income thereby, raise a society to consume the tendency; Increase obtain employment more be helpful for solving a dweller to decrease directly close add an expectant pressure problem. "3 farming " problem, " binary economy structure " the problem is to restrict the essential sex problem that our country economy will develop for a long time henceforth. Of the addition of income of the development of rural economics, farmer and rural market start truly, assure will be growth of demand of our country consumption at all, also be to increase inside the plan of needed effect a permanent cure. Increase obtain employment and solve " 3 farming " the main goal that the problem rates finance policy and even policy of whole and macroscopical adjusting control, can solve demand to be not worth a problem not only, the abidance of stimulative economy stabilizes development, still facilitate will current finance policy and long-term henceforth finance policy and development strategy join well rise. 2, the adjusting control pattern that adjusts finance policy: Turn to demand management and supply management to pay equal attention to by demand management, both organic ground union rises. The Keynesia creed demand that the active finance policy of our country is a model runs policy, the core of its policy measure and main content are around wear what exciting demand spreads out. But in light of the feasibility condition of current our country, have consumptive demand already not the problem of flourishing, put in the problem with supply unreasonable structure again. The industrial structure of our country, company structure, product structure and structure of urban and rural and binary economy are extremely unreasonable, supply situation cannot get used to the demand of consumer of level of different estate, different income. And as people income level and significant demand rise ceaselessly, supply may develop the main field that makes contradiction, adjust supply to will appear more and more important. From the point of the practice experience of western developed country, execute for a long time through enlarging the finance deficit, policy that adds hair national debt to spur demand, inevitable meeting brings economy " sluggish bilges " evil consequence. Accordingly, since entering new century, western country uses management of demand of give attention to two or morethings and supply government generally, and the finance policy that gives priority to with supply management. This one experience is worth us to draw lessons from. 3, the use that adjusts finance policy shift: By onefold the government spending measure that makes investment of national debt of in order to is given priority to gets lost government spending and finance income measure use. Generally speaking, the method that vigorous finance policy uses normally is to expand government spending and reduce tax two respects. And our country uses the onefold government spending method that gives priority to with national debt investment all the time, although the respect waited to also take a few step in taxation, but for method of investment of opposite national debt, it is very faint. Of policy shift apply must be subject to the change at policy target and means of policy adjusting control. In will increase obtain employment and solve " 3 farming " the target that the problem brings into finance policy, below the requirement that fulfils demand management and supply management to pay equal attention to, continue to rely on national debt to invest a step alone again, it is insufficient apparently, use all sorts of methods of finance income and defray integratedly only, include taxation, national debt, investment, allowance, move to pay the combination that waits for a method, ability achieves adjusting control goal effectively. From the point of market adjustment and the relation that plan to adjust, taxation photograph to government spending method, more the requirement that accords with market adjustment, accordingly, the adjustment that should take revenue measure seriously particularly action. Specific and character: It is the dimensions that adjusts national debt investment appropriately and direction, reduce deficit budget. National debt dimensions should the basis is the following the metabolic circumstance of two respects element undertakes timely adjust: Should hold to finance income and expenses to be in above all on the whole, the guiding principle that balances roughly inside certain period, want to be deficit and control of national debt dimensions in certain limit, control deficit rate in 3% less than for instance. According to this one requirement, deficit should enlarge when economy is stagnant, increase to national debt is issued and invest; Had anabiosised when economy and enter after upsurging, with respect to should shrunken deficit, decrease to national debt is issued and invest. Want to consider a society to always invest to invest a state with folk next, according to economy development latent capacity invests the requirement of dimensions always to the society, below the condition that always invests dimensions to already was decided in the society namely, civilian undercapitalize, should increase governmental investment; Civilian investment is brisk, should reduce governmental investment, the open, construction that encourages civilian investment to participate in public project, infrastructure project, in order to ease the pressure of government spending. According to afore-mentioned requirements, connection is current our country is actual, ought to reduce the investment scope of long-term national debt stage by stage. 2 it is to should advance the strength to public finance transition, increase governmental investment, reduce farmer burden, exert oneself is solved " 3 farming " problem. "3 farming " problem and national policy are concerned, the Chongzhongzhi that is called to be governmental job by Premier Wen Jiabao is heavy. To solve " 3 farming " problem, look from wealth tax angle, should implement the policy that grants to be taken less more to agriculture and farmer, increase the investment to agriculture energetically on one hand, on the other hand exert oneself reduces farmer burden. Increase devoted to agriculture content to include: Expand to wait for the investment of infrastructure to road of a rural area, irrigation works, electric power, communication; Increase education, science and technology, communal to the country healthful devoted strength; Pay through move, increase to make offerings to to rural finance the finance allowance of personnel. Reducing farmer responsibility respect, the duty that has in the country currently expends reform to have certain effect, but this can be one kind transfers only method, from the point of long-term development, should cancel active agriculture duty of duty, agricultural special local product mixes all sorts of collecting fees, implement urban and rural and centralized tax system. Develop to stimulate agricultural economy, increase a farmer income and reduce farmer burden, should consider to suspend imposing agricultural duty and tax of agricultural special local product, be in above all western execute with impoverished area. Premier Wen goes out in middle finger of governmental working report, since this year, lower agricultural tax tax rate stage by stage, average and annual reduce 1% above, agricultural tax abolishs inside 5 years, outside removing tobacco leaf, abolish tax of agricultural special local product. 3 it is to should execute measurable structural sex to decrease tax measure, increase finance of crowd of population, unemployed man, low to poverty income to transfer disbursement strength. What tell here is measurable reduce tax, it is to show combinative tax system is adjusted, reduce appropriately to the tax rate of a few main categories of taxes, at the same time complementary impose a few new categories of taxes and the tax rate that increase a few categories of taxes in order to leave. Accordingly, can say reduce tax for measurable structural sex. The necessity that such doing depends on: Since entering new century, world each country appeared new the round tide that reduce tax, below the condition of economic globalization, the global internationally that reduce tax is had affect effect. To this we must give consideration; Look from theory and practice, decrease duty to have stimulative effect to economic development; Total burden of cost of tax of our country business is at present overweight, go against the competition ability that enhances a business; The main categories of taxes of our country -- , the on the high side of statutory tax rate of value added tax and enterprise income tax; Reduce tax moderately, look from the angle of development, OK and exciting economy grows, will be helpful for finally increasing finance income. The categories of taxes that needs to reduce tax basically has: By type of production value added tax change is consumption model; Unified and amalgamative inside and outside endowment two enterprise income tax are made, key is low active the scale tax rate of 3376, normative duty front row is raised, increase necessary deduction; Time-out imposes agricultural duty and tax of agricultural special local product, increase a farmer to be able to control income to wait. The categories of taxes that needs to increase tax basically has: Enlarge the levy limits of resource duty; Combine the innovation that blowdown expends, impose environmental tax; Combine the innovation of social security system, impose social security tax; Ask for death duty and given duty to wait. Still need to increase finance finally the supportive strength to medium and small businesses. Medium and small businesses holds significant position in progress of our country economy. At present our country medium and small businesses already exceeded 10 million, occupy 99% what register company number entirely, the gross value of industrial output of medium and small businesses and profit tax take entire company respectively 60% with 40% . Particularly important is, medium and small businesses is the person basically be offerred of obtain employment post. Because medium and small businesses belongs to labor mostly concentrated model industry, make it is solving respect of labor obtain employment to have advantaged advantage. Since reforming and opening, our country town enterprise digested the half left and right sides of force of rural surplus labor. Data of a statistic shows, the capital obtain employment of big, medium, small company leads our country than be 0.48-0.66, that is to say, the fund that uses as much will find a place for in medium and small businesses times more than big company labour force obtain employment. Current, medium and small businesses offerred the obtain employment opportunity of about 75% . Accordingly, increase finance the supportive strength to obtain employment, an important facet promotes the development of medium and small businesses namely. Bibliographical reference: [1] Chen Gong. Cameralistics [M] . Beijing: Press of Chinese people university, 2003. [2] Guo Qingwang, zhao Zhiyun. Finance theory and policy [M] . Beijing: Economic science press, 2002. [3] Kong Zhifeng. The public finance of Chinese characteristic is explored [M] . Beijing: Economic science press, 2003. [4] Zhang Xin. Current a few major reform and collected works of finance concern research [M] . Beijing: Economic science press, 2000. (www.my-paper.info my paper)

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