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Research of concept of investment of strategy of Ba Fei spy
 
One, Buffett is in strategic investment concept of Buffett in long-term investment practice, invest academic research to contemporary negotiable securities, of information of verify certificate market collect the analysis, understanding that asks to investor behavior and psychological quality, choice to investing breed and investment opportunity hold wait for additional monarch to path, its are critically converse thinking of the gender and investment behavior, formed its distinctive strategy to invest a concept. The article invests a concept to be mixed theoretically from investment to its strategy investment principle two respects proceed with, consider and sum up its distinctive investment concept. (one) distinctive and academic contemporary negotiable securities of Buffett invests theory, if diversity negotiable securities invests the negotiable securities of academic, simplification to invest an analysis,theory of mode and efficient market is waited a moment, these research that invest analysis and university to investor, negotiable securities theoretically and education produced extensive effect. And Buffett besides the security market with real attention, look attentively at what negotiable securities invests theory closely also to evolve, discovered these academic the heel of Achilles, found the investment method that gets space of high yield market thereby (perhaps saying is place of those academic the heel of Achilles those who give) , the distinctive negotiable securities strategy that also formed oneself at the same time invests theory. 1. Be close to theory of 0 venture capital investment of Buffett " be close to 0 risks " invest theory or saying theory of avoid market venture capital investment is main is build fluctuate in share price of near future of blame stock market over, he pays close attention to enterprise itself more, price of stock of and rather than. His academic base point is: Want society and market only total trend is develop to good side, here premise falls, choose the way of long-term investment, long-term investment basically pays close attention to the particular industry of a choice, the development foreground of these enterprises and in recent years the satisfaction of economic atmosphere is spent (basically be successive year yield) it is good, belong to accomplishment to actor or actress the enterprise can be centered, long-term investment, such meetings reduce a risk, obtain relatively the accrual of beautiful, be close to 0 venture capital investment namely. 2. Those who center investment to combine politic Buffett is adjacent concept of investment of 0 ventures strategy makes his be on investment strategy, adopt the company that there is attention concentration purposefully the choice in a few to go up, have close research as far as possible to its, master its intrinsic value, seek an opportunity, undertake centralized investing assorted, long term hold, in order to get relatively the investment redound of beautiful. Buffett is to object investing those who combine theory with critically diversity, he thinks: "Diversity just rises to protect ignorant action. If you want to let the market do not produce any bad effect to you, you ought to own share of avery kind of, this does not know to be not known to those is a kind of apple-pie strategy for the person that how analyses company condition. " from a lot of respects, contemporary investment protected those not to know to also do not know the investor that how evaluates a company theoretically, but these investor also did not achieve satisfactory earnings. 3. Buffett by efficient market theory Buffett thinks: "The advocate of efficient market theory people never be opposite it seems that as disharmonious as their theory evidence generates interest " . And the main reason that he thinks efficient market theory can'ts bear biff is: 1) investor always is not sensible; 2) investor cannot be analysed correctly to information; Lever of 3) outstanding achievement emphasizes short-term outstanding achievement, this makes the possibility that beats the market from long-term point of view not answer existence. The hypothesis premise that Buffett thinks efficient market theory was not the investor that those comprehensive analysises can get information and holds competitive dominant position from this to provide any successes. Buffett thinks " the market is effective this one viewpoint it is correct, but conclude saying the market is from this forever effective, this is wrong; These two hypothesis and difference as be being mixed by day night " . (2) Ba Fei of principle of investment of strategy of Ba Fei spy's special strategic investment principle also is its investment concept is important make element. When Buffett has investment, what pay attention to more is company itself, price of stock of and rather than. When choice company has investment, buffett abides by same investment strategy: The intrinsic value of the enterprise whether benefit at long-term investment; The market value of the enterprise whether under vendibility; The business of the enterprise whether benefit is mixed at understanding master; Whether is battalion of already of look forward to stabilized and have development perspective; Whether rational, honesty mixes the administrative layer of the enterprise have ability. This namely strategy of importunate of Ba Fei spy invests a principle, namely enterprise principle, management principle, financial principle and market principle. 1. Enterprise principle Ba Fei thinks the stock is abstract concept especially, he does not ponder over a stock with the means such as the trend of concept of market theory, overall economy or each industry domain. His investment manages state and real value actually what theory and behavior decided he pays close attention to an enterprise more, principle of his importunate enterprise is from 1) this enterprise is simple and comprehensible; The management state that 2) this company goes is stable; 3) this company grows foreground for a long time to whether be valued to wait for a respect to undertake hold and be evaluatinged. 2. The character of estate of the person that management principle Ba Fei takes business management seriously very especially, the controller of preeminent company has the attitude of set oneself an example to others, regard its as act and reflection criterion. The person that have the business management of good quality can regard him as the controller of the company, can be implementation company the mainest goal, what increase partner to hold share price value to have reason namely is decision-making, carry out its decision-making. Buffett's investment manages a principle to basically include: 1) government estate is rational; Estate of 2) whole government is honest to partner honest; Whether can 3) government estate defy the behavior that follows suit blindly. 3. Financial principle Ba Fei thinks the enterprise creates management accrual to need the time that lasts several years especially, buffett values every 4 years more or manage performance on average 5 years. The financial principle that he follows is: 1) pays attention to redound of rights and interests and not be every accrual; 2) is calculated " partner accrual " ; 3) seeks the company of usury embellish; 4) company every reservation 1 dollar should ensure found 1 dollar market prise. 4. Market principle Ba Fei discovered a strange phenomenon especially: Investor always hates the most advantageous to them market chronically, and the market that gains profit not easily to those has a special liking however. Be in subconscious in, investor does not like to own the share that those share price drop very much, and the stock that rises all the way to those has good opinion very much. And Buffett thinks, the price of negotiable securities can suffer the effect of all sorts of elements, fluctuation is fluctuant near the substantial value that most stock is in its company, and be not all going up to drop logical. Market principle of Buffett is namely on the substantial value basis that researchs a company, search or await the good price average of the stock, the value that discovers an enterprise namely is far when the stock price that is more than the market, or those stock prices that have investment value company extremely are in however short-term inside when dropping badly, below these two kinds of states, with respect to a large number of decisive average, all the way hold. (3) strategy of Ba Fei spy invests a concept to sum up strategy of Ba Fei spy to invest a concept go out from the sublimate in actual combat, coach in practice its invest behavior again at the same time. The core of the concept invests for a long time namely and hold essence value (accomplishment actors or actress) the stock of enterprise and enterprise, this kind of strategy that is close to 0 risks invests a concept, understand adequately namely held the market, was far from the market again, then conquer the market. Buffett's strategy invests a concept roughly but fractionize invests 12 logistic, investment for 5 point, 8 pick a standard and 2 investment way. 1.5 investment are to point to logically: 1) regards him as is the operator of the enterprise, so I become outstanding investor, because regard oneself as investor, so I become outstanding business operator. The price of stock of market of substantial value ratio of 2) enterprise is mainer. 3) lifetime seeks the company of specific industry. 4) decides of company share price is the substantial value of the company finally. 5) fits the will finest enterprise slip out of the hand without any time. 2.12 investment point is to point to: 1) uses the market to undertake having regular investment. 2) average price is one of elements of on any account that decide pay is led. Of the compound growth of 3) profit trade charge avoids to make investor is benefited with what duty loses boundless. The year profit gains of 4) opposite enterprise, pay attention to prospective 5-10 more year yield. 5) invests the company with prospective accrual high determinism only. 6) the oldest enemy that inflation is investor. 7) value with grow model investment concept is interlinked, value is flow of cash of an investment future lose present worth, and one when grow to just use decision value forecasts a process. The 8) investor success on finance affairs and his understanding degree to investing an enterprise becomes direct ratio. 9) " safe limit " investment action depends on the price risk with potential amortize, also can achieve rate of relatively high pay of rights and interests at the same time. 10) owns a kind of share, expect it will rise next week, it is very foolish. 11) invests decision-making behavior to what make clear, because get exterior factor,be not disturbed and change at will. Investment of strategy of 12) negotiable securities should exclude all sorts of market interference and influencing factor, notice to buy what stock and buying price only. 3.8 investment level is to point to: 1) must be the accomplishment actor enterprise of specific industry. 2) company business is simple and easy understanding, foreground is valued. 3) has stable management history. 4) finance affairs is dovish. 5) management efficiency is tall, gains is good. 6) operator reason, faithful, it is with shareholder interest from beginning to end first. 7) capital expenditure is little, free cash flow is ample. 8) price is reasonable. 4.2 investment means is to point to: 1) extended hold (lifetime even to the stock of certain business hold) . 2) is become the market too when the price of overmeasure hold stock, also can consider to undertake short-term cover interest. 2, the strategy of Chinese security market invests what with Buffett the strategy invests a concept to draw lessons from Buffett strategic investment concept is in what have history of 100 old security market the United States is formed, his yield makes he becomes the negotiable securities investor with 20 the most successful centuries of American, he is called a god, his concept is acted according to to be criterion. But, american security market is to pass 100 old law to superintend the competitive standard with oneself, just formed the security market that gives priority to body with investment, because,be such market, the strategy of Buffett and Buffett invests the person that just produced investment be a comprehensive expression of concept. Accordingly, study and the strategy that draw lessons from Buffett invest thought and investment means, method, cannot be imitated simply absolutely or copy copy word for word, also cannot local, one-sided understanding, want to have to real market and market current situation however comprehensive, deep, understand and hold rationally, all sorts of information that want pair of markets at the same time and method have he are original and effective choice. Here premise falls, ability study, draw lessons from, the strategy that absorb and digests Buffett invests a concept, the method of effective in investing practice integrated Buffett and the investment that makes oneself is politic. (one) Chinese real security market and   of analysis of security market current situation 2001, chinese economy is the window of world economy, the whole world admits, 2001 is China year, be China is lucky year. But, the Chinese stock market 2001 however free and easy rises and fall, be full of variable, security market severe illness set out of 10 years. Be in this year, chinese stock market developed the problem of deposit of the place in the process to always erupt, also caused about Chinese stock market the blemish of internal composition and evolution appear the great debate of shape. The author thinks, opposite at " window " and " lucky " , the most typical market of Chinese market economy namely the problem of set out of place of financial security market, just reflected transition market to step the first pace that moves toward maturity.   面对21世纪,面对全球经济一体化,面对WTO,中国以转型过渡为特征的市场(包括金融证券市场),其结构性转变的拐点出现了,“怎么拐”是一个绕不开也不能绕开的问题横在国人面前,证券市场的这场争论是从2001年1月14日吴敬琏先生在中央电视台的《对话》节目中首先提出的,随后引发的大争论,牵动了学术界的厉以宁、董辅réng@①、萧灼基、许小年、吴晓求、刘纪鹏、韩志国等,同时扩展到了证券监管部门、金融证券机构、上市公司、媒体、股民、政府官员等广泛的市场领域,直至引发了股票市场的巨大波动。证券市场的种种黑幕和违规频频被媒体曝光,证券市场的“赌场论”、“婴儿论”、“成绩论”、“发展论”、“光明论”、“老鼠会”、“体制病”,等等观点相互争论,面对证券市场的各种问题以及不同的认识,中国证监会为了规范证券市场,加强了监管的力度,一年之内相继出台了100多项证券监管措施、办法和条例。  中国证券市场发展至今的现状及所存在的问题引发的争论,归纳起来,主要有四种观点:  1)悲观论或完美论。认为中国证券市场的诞生就存在着严重的先天不足,运行至今存在严重的内在结构问题,必须“推倒重来”。  2)洞悉现实忧患论。中国证券市场的现实是成绩和问题并存,为了立足现实、解决问题、抓住机遇、更好发展,就应该充分认识到机遇源自于对挑战的应对,市场现状还不足以自满和欢庆,必须以负责任的忧患意识,洞悉问题,正视问题,加倍努力去应对挑战,解决问题,才有可能在未来相互关联的国际市场竞争中求得成熟的心态和理念准备。  3)肯定现实光明论。成绩是首位的,问题是存在的,发展是光明的。  4)乐观唱颂论。取得的成绩使人感到振奋,对现实和未来充满乐观,并仍唱颂着面对未来和发展。  作者更认同第二种观点,即洞悉现实忧患意识的观点,这一观点也就是以吴敬琏先生为代表的观点,吴先生的观点之精义不在于他为了讨论问题、切中问题要害而说的“中国股市连赌场都不如”,“中国股市的市盈率在15倍左右还比较正常”。吴先生的洞悉现实忧患意识的精义在于负有责任感的学者和管理者都要不拘于现实成绩的满足,而要在洞悉成绩和问题的基础上,正视市场的公平、信用和效率状况,正视国外优势成熟市场和资本的竞争压力。正视了这些,负有责任感就自然有忧患意识,WTO后的中国市场,全球的竞争已成必然,中国的证券市场要抓住机遇就要应对挑战,机遇和成功是在正确、有效应对挑战中获得的。中国证券市场的战略投资同样面临着机遇和应对挑战的问题。  因此,笔者认为目前中国证券市场的现状是:  中国证券市场是政策调控与市场自身调节相互的动态求均衡。中国证券市场是信息不对称的,弱者急需信息的透明、公平。中国证券市场从严重机会不均等转变到机会仍较不均等的状态。中国证券市场仍然处在以投机心态、理念和行为为主体的状态。以投资心态、理念和行为为主体的市场状态,仍需时间和努力。中国证券市场的投资品种基本上不具备长期投资价值,多数品种只具有短期投资价值,只有少数品种具有中期投资价值。中国证券市场经历十年的发展,获得了发展初始期的经验和成功,但仍然处在发展的初期,属于不成熟的证券市场。中国证券市场起始遗留的问题,如国有股独大、未流通股份太大等等问题依然存在。证券市场交易仍然存在太多的公平、信用、成本的问题。因此,证券市场法制、证券市场监管、证券市场规范、证券市场自身秩序和证券市场结构的建立还需要很长时间的努力和演进。中国证券市场变数多、关联多、潜力大、吸引力大和诱惑力大,是充满需求和机会的市场。WTO后,外来资金和资本对中国证券市场将产生更大的变数和机遇。  所以,中国证券市场还不具备长期投资理念的产生,也就不具备产生巴菲特式的投资者,更不能把巴菲特的战略投资理念照搬到中国证券市场中来,但巴菲特战略投资理念的思想和方法对中国证券市场的投资者极具价值。    (二)中国证券帝场的战略投资与巴菲特战略投资理念的借鉴  通过对巴菲特战略投资理念的研究和目前中国证券市场现状的分析,作者认为巴菲特战略投资理念思想的精义,对中国证券市场的投资仍然有着深刻的、有效的价值。  根据巴菲特的投资分析方法和理念思想,笔者认为,目前中国证券市场战略投资要素主要是五个方面,即战略投资的5项要素。  1.政策与市场要素。相对于欧美成熟的证券市场,中国的证券市场还比较明显的是政策市场,政策调控和监管所占的权重不超20%,而证券市场本身调节的权重在80%以上。目前中国的证券市场政策调控与市场本身调节的权重大致各占50%。因此,战略投资必须考虑政策与市场的二元因素,即更多的不确定性因素的影响。  2.信息不对称、机会不均等带来风险。虽然说信息不对称、机会不均等是任何市场普遍存在的现象,虽然说中国股市历经十年的培育和发展,严重的信息不对称和机会不均等已得到大大改善,但目前的中国股市依然存在着较严重的信息不对称和机会不均等问题。因此,战略投资必须考虑由机会不均等和信息不对称所带来的风险。  3.信用、收益与业绩。虽然说中国股市历经十年的培育和发展,依然较普遍存在着上市公司和市场行为缺乏信用的现象,但是随着股市爆利时代的结束和依法监管的加强,企业以自己的业绩给投资者带来收益的时代已经初现。因此,战略投资不仅要分析股票的市场价格,还要分析企业的收益,并且要逐步转向以企业收益分析为主的投资决策。  4.投资与投机。中国证券市场十年的发展过程,证券投资基本上是以投机为主的,因此市场恶炒、爆炒、坐庄、庄家连炒盛行,各种黑幕、各种违规层层交织。但是随着2001年股市问题大讨论和总爆发,政府监管力度加强,股民自觉意识加强,投资机构的大量引入,加入WTO后的竞争压力,以及市场自身调节和上市公司的自律,使得中国证券市场出现了投资与投机并重的新现象。随着证券市场的发展,必将形成以投资为主体的证券市场和市场行为。因此,战略投资可以在中国证券市场逐步实施并培育了。  5.投资战略与战术。战略与战术是相互整合的关系,战略表现为方向性、长期性、稳定性、协同性、整体性和竞争性。战术表现为短期性、效率性、目的性、策略性和竞争性。再好的战略也是由一系列的战术单元构成的,战略离不开战术的连续支持;再好的战术也是为战略服务的,不能因为一个或几个战术成功,陷入自满而忽略或忘记了战略。巴菲特的战略投资理念在中国证券市场的借鉴和应用,其精义在于对战略时间跨度的界定。  巴菲特战略投资理念在美国证券市场以5-10年,长期持有甚至终生持有为战略时间跨度。而在目前中国证券市场,战略的长期性最多界定为3年以上,那么1~2年界定为中期,1年以内界定为短期。  因此,目前中国证券市场的投资战略适用的是立足中期投资,抓住短期机会,着眼长期投资的战略组合。  笔者通过对巴菲特战略投资理念的核心思想归纳,以及产生这种战略投资理念的美国市场环境和现实市场的认识,对目前中国证券市场的现状进行了分析和认定,从而对巴菲特战略投资理念在中国证券市场的借鉴和应用进行了探索研究,更重要的是其战略投资理念对中国证券市场未来发展和投资人战略投资的积极深远意义进行了分析。  字库未存字注释:    @①原字礻加乃(www.my-paper.info my paper)

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